Or if you're one of those people who doesn't believe in luck for whatever reason, read the title as 'events outside your control'. Either way, I think a lot of community managers and admin sites kind of underestimate how much of a site's success seems to depend on things like random chance and simply setting up a site at the right time. I've seen plenty of amateur run sites end up making it big despite what seems like all the odds stacked against them and sites run by kids as a hobby end up becoming their career. And I've also seen a lot of 'professionals' fail miserably in running websites and forums, marketing companies and start ups with a whole bunch of talented employees find their projects never catch on despite 'doing everything right'. They use social media, they make high quality videos, they have a nice site style, 'decent' content and everything else, then the site still ends up a ghost town and closes in six months. So how much of a role does luck play in forum or community or website success? And be honest now, people tend to love to take responsibility when things go well and blame others when they fail (I know I do), so try and think objectively and not act like I'm attacking your experience or anything.